Dow, The Near 6-Year Low

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the 8,000 point mark for the first time since nearly 6 years on Wednesday, November 19, 2008 after dropping 427.47 points to close at 7,997.28 points. The last time the index closed blow 8,000 points was March 31, 2003.

It took the index four and half years to reach the peak of 14,164 on October 9, 2007, but only a little over one year to give all the gains up.

So, with a little over one month to go for 2008, what’s your prediction of the Dow at the end of the year? 7000, 7500, 8000, 9000 or 10000? On Intrade, traders don’t seem to be very optimistic about the prospective of 10,000 or higher close of the Dow when 2008 ends. Based on what happened in the past month, my guess is the Dow could close above 9,000 but below 9,500. My reason is that there won’t be any new policy before the year end to address the crisis, but stocks could rebound a little bit from the current level due to bargain hunting (now over 100 so-called blue-chips stocks are traded under $10). If that’s case, it still means the Dow will lose some 30% in 2008